Obviously, these estimates are moving targets, and will be revised again, but they do give a sense of where expectations lie today. eMarketer arrives at its numbers by looking at other research estimates and coming up with its own meta-estimate. As a percentage of total media spending, the online component will grow from 15.3 percent in 2010 to 21.5 percent in 2014 (based on total media spending of $168.5 billion in 2010 and $188.5 billion in 2014).

Lump in the burgeoning growth of Groupon-style local advertising, and these estimates could end up looking too low. Below is a chart of eMarketer’s estimates from May for comparison:

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Authors: Erick Schonfeld

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